MARKET RISK · CORRECTION MONITOR leading-indicator instrument panel
generated 2026-07-01 16:00
local · informational only
Risk elevated — leverage at records, curve re-steepening, delinquencies ticking up, VIX calm; bottoming signals 1/5.
CORRECTION RISKcomposite
370100
ELEVATED — watch closely
30d ·90d ·
8/9 indicators scored
low (0-33)elevated (33-66)high (66-100)
READat a glance
Risk elevated — leverage at records, curve re-steepening, delinquencies ticking up, VIX calm; bottoming signals 1/5.
Thesis: mega-cap-led US equities vulnerable to a 20-30% correction (Sept 2026 → mid-2027). Tiles track whether that thesis is confirming or breaking in public data. Informational only — not trading advice.
SETUP / DATA NOTES
  • FRED_API_KEY missing — get it at https://fredaccount.stlouisfed.org/apikeys
TIER 1 · IS A CORRECTION COMING?
VIX — Volatility / Fear▲
16.7
G<20 · R>30 · cap>50as of 2026-07-01
10Y Treasury — Rate of Change▲
4.38% (-18bps/1m)
drop >30=Y · >50bps=Ras of 2026-06-29
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y▬
+30 bps
invert=YELLOW · re-steepen=REDas of 2026-06-30
re-steepened after inversion — recession often follows
High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)▼
280 bps
G<350 · R>500as of 2026-06-29
Margin Debt (Leverage)▲
$1,415,557M (+8.5% MoM)
≥98% of ATH=watchas of 2026-05-01
at/near record high
Retail Sales — MoM▼
+0.9% MoM
≤0%=Y · 2+ neg=Ras of 2026-05-01
Credit-Card Delinquency▼
2.92%
G<2.5 · R>3.5as of 2026-01-01
Equity Fund Flows▼
$+55.7B (inflow)
<0=Y · 4+ wk outflows=Ras of 2026-06-17
Retail Froth (Reddit)▬
4,894 mentions
calibrating 1/8as of 2026-07-01
building history — 7 more daily reads to calibrate
CONTEXT
S&P 500 P/E (context)▲
32.2x
G<22 · R>28as of 2026-06-30
BOTTOMING WATCH1 / 5 active need 3+
◯Capitulation flushVIX 10d-max 19 (≥50) · vol 1.1× 60d-med
◯Fund flows reversinglatest $+55.7B, prior outflows=False
◯Credit spreads compressing280bps vs 180d-peak 346bps
◯Insider buying surge3 cluster buys (need ≥15)
●Earnings estimates stabilizing6/6 mega-caps flat-or-up vs 30d ago
Tier-2 reversal signals. A bottom is likely when 3-4 fire together. Not folded into the risk score.
UPCOMING EARNINGS · S&P 50018 in 14d
Wed Jul 1
FDSFactSetBMO$4.44
GISGeneral MillsBMO$0.82
Thu Jul 9
PEPPepsiCoBMO$2.19
Fri Jul 10
DALDelta Air LinesBMO$1.43
Tue Jul 14
BACBank of AmericaBMO$1.11
CCitigroupBMO$2.65
FASTFastenalBMO$0.33
GSGoldman SachsBMO$13.78
JPMJPMorgan ChaseBMO$5.49
WFCWells FargoBMO$1.73
Wed Jul 15
BNYBNY MellonBMO$2.17
JNJJohnson & JohnsonBMO$2.83
KMIKinder Morgan—$0.31
MSMorgan StanleyBMO$2.73
MTBM&T BankBMO$4.66
PGRProgressive Corporation—$4.55
PNCPNC Financial ServicesBMO$4.53
UALUnited Airlines HoldingsAMC$1.78
Index-member reporting calendar (Nasdaq). BMO=before open, AMC=after close, EPS=consensus estimate.
RETAIL BUZZ · all retail forumsmentions / Δ24h
1MUS&PMicron Technology830▲279
2METAS&PMeta Platforms (Facebook)398▲363
3SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust310▼40
4MSFTS&PMicrosoft307▲34
5WENWendy’s Company296▲26
6NBISNebius Group171▲120
7NVDAS&PNVIDIA156▲55
8NKES&PNike156▲120
9RDDTReddit128▲117
10SNDKS&PSandisk119▼19
11AMDS&PAMD113▼25
12QQQInvesco QQQ ETF109▲17
Most-mentioned tickers across Reddit retail forums (WSB, stocks, investing, …) via ApeWisdom · 4,894 total. Rising chatter feeds the Retail Froth tile.
Data: FRED (St. Louis Fed), FINRA, ICI, multpl.com, OpenInsider/SEC EDGAR, yfinance. Thresholds & weights are configurable in config/config.yaml; see DATA_SOURCES.md. Composite weights leverage, spreads & flows heavier. History logged to SQLite.